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Less than a week ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly election results, multiple exit polls have predicted a victory for the incumbent Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in the state. However, the polls show thin margins of difference in vote share. Axis My India, however, has said that actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) might win up to 120 seats and become the ‘next MGR’. Counting for the elections is slated to be held on May 4.
The polls favouring DMK have predicted anywhere between 125 and 160 seats for DMK and its allies out of 234 seats. Several polls suggest the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and its allies may secure 50 to 100 seats.
Most polls say actor Vijay’s TVK – contesting its maiden election – is projected to win between 13 and 26 seats.
Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 Assembly seats, with the halfway mark at 118 needed to form the government. The DMK is contesting 173 seats, while its allies, including the Congress (25), Communist Party of India (CPI) (6), Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] (6), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) (6), Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) (6) and others, are contesting the remaining seats in the alliance.
On the other side, the AIADMK is contesting 179 seats, with its ally BJP contesting 20 seats, along with smaller partners like PMK and others sharing the rest.
India Today - Axis My India
TVK party chief Vijay’s ambition to sit in the Chief Minister’s seat in Tamil Nadu may finally bear fruit if one goes by the numbers presented by Axis My India.
Axis My India, the leading Indian election polling and market research firm, has predicted that the DMK alliance will win 92-110 seats, while the AIADMK will only manage to secure between 22 and 32 seats. Actor Vijay’s TVK, which has emerged as a key disruptor in this election, is expected to win between 98 and 120 seats.
Pradeep Gupta of My Axis told India Today that the TVK did exceptionally well in the Chennai region. He said that even the big names in DMK, including MK Stalin, will find this election a challenge.
DMK’s vote share is projected to be 35%, AIADMK’s 23%, while TVK is estimated to secure around 35% of the vote share, largely driven by youth support. NTK is pegged at 3% and others at 4%.
The survey says that the DMK-led alliance drew strong support from Muslim (64%) and Christian (53%) voters while maintaining a competitive edge among SC, ST and OBC/MBC communities. The AIADMK-led alliance appears to retain a significant share among Brahmin voters (40%) but lags behind across most other social groups.
Notably, Vijay’s TVK has made inroads across communities, securing 42% among SCs, 47% among STs and 36% among OBC/MBC voters, along with 25% among Muslims, 31% among Christians and 20% among Brahmins, pointing to a broad-based but fragmented support base.
Smaller players like NTK and others continue to have a marginal but consistent presence across caste groups, the survey suggests.
P-Marq
According to P-Marq, which conducted exit polls along with India Ahead news, the DMK-led alliance will win 125-145 seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. The AIADMK-led NDA alliance will win 65-85 seats, according to the exit poll. Vijay’s TVK is expected to win 16-26 seats, emerging as a third force in the state’s political landscape.
The DMK alliance’s vote share is pegged at 36% as per P-Marq’s exit polls, and the vote share forecast for the AIADMK alliance is 31% in Tamil Nadu. TVK is expected to garner a vote share of 23% and 10% for others.
Today’s Chanakya
Indian election forecasting and psephology firm founded by Yogendra Yadav, Today’s Chanakya exit polls also showed the DMK-led alliance sweeping the Assembly elections with 145 to 160 seats. The AIADMK-led alliance will win 50 to 56 seats, it predicted. Vijay’s TVK is projected to secure 13 to 18 seats in its debut election.
Today’s Chanakya has predicted a vote share of 42% to 46% for the DMK and its allies. In the 2021 polls, DMK alone managed to secure 133 (38%) seats.
The AIADMK is expected to secure 36% to 40%. This is an increase from the 2021 polls, when they secured 33.5% votes. The TVK is expected to win 12% to 16%.
People’s Pulse
People’s exit polls also showed the DMK-led alliance sweeping the Assembly elections with 125 to 145 seats. The AIADMK-led alliance will win 65 to 80 seats, it predicted. Vijay’s TVK is projected to secure 18 to 24 seats in its debut election.
It has predicted a vote share of 38.4% for the DMK and its allies. In the 2021 polls, DMK alone managed to secure 133 (38%) seats.
The AIADMK alliance is expected to secure 31.5%. This is a decrease from the 2021 polls, when they secured 33.5% votes. The TVK is expected to win 23.6% and others 6.5%.
Matrize
The Matrize exit poll has predicted a comfortable win for the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, with the alliance winning 122-132 seats, while the NDA led by AIADMK is projected to win 87-100 seats. Around 10-12 seats are predicted for Vijay’s TVK.
As per Matrize’s pollsters, the DMK-led alliance will hold on to 40.3% of the vote share in Tamil Nadu with AIADMK, TVK and other parties securing 37.1%, 17.5% and 5.1%, respectively.
JVC
The JVC has instead predicted 128 to 147 seats for the AIADMK and its allies. The DMK will only secure 75 to 96 seats, they predict. The TVK is expected to win 8 to 15 seats.
In northern Tamil Nadu, the DMK+ is expected to win 27 to 32 seats. The AIDAMK+ is projected to win 43 to 46 seats, and the TVK may win 8 to 10 seats, JVC says.
In southern Tamil Nadu, the DMK+ is expected to win 22 to 33 seats. The AIDAMK+ is projected to win 24 to 34 seats, and the TVK may win 3 seats.
Political Laboratory
According to the Hyderabad-based election analytics and polling agency Political Laboratory exit poll, the DMK-led alliance is projected to win 135-140 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 118 and likely forming the government. The AIADMK-led alliance is expected to secure 82-85 seats, positioning itself as a strong opposition but falling short of a comeback. Actor Vijay’s TVK, along with other smaller parties, is projected to win 10-14 seats, emerging as a limited but notable presence.
The poll highlights Chief Minister MK Stalin’s leadership and welfare-focused governance as key factors aiding the DMK, even in the face of some anti-incumbency. It also points to AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami’s efforts to mount a comeback, though not enough to bridge the gap.
A significant factor in this election, the poll notes, is the entry of TVK, which is seen as a “vote-splitter” rather than a decisive winner. The fragmentation of the anti-incumbency vote, particularly among younger voters, is believed to have indirectly benefited the DMK.
Among the major issues influencing voter sentiment were the NEET exam controversy, debates over state autonomy versus Union-state relations, and concerns around welfare spending versus fiscal sustainability.
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