Modi’s UAE visit signals strategic energy, defence pivot amid Gulf tensions

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official visit to the UAE on May 15 — his eighth trip to the country since taking office in 2014 — comes at one of the most volatile moments in the Gulf region in recent years, underscoring the extraordinary strategic importance New Delhi now places on its rapidly expanding defence and energy partnership with Abu Dhabi. High-stakes visit Recommended For You The visit, the opening leg of Modi’s five-nation diplomatic tour spanning the UAE, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy, is expected to focus heavily on defence cooperation, energy security, maritime stability and trade resilience against the backdrop of escalating regional tensions and growing risks to global supply chains. Modi will hold high-level talks with President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan as both countries seek to deepen what has evolved into one of India’s most consequential strategic partnerships. The timing of the visit is particularly significant. The Gulf region is grappling with heightened geopolitical uncertainty linked to the continuing US-Iran confrontation, threats to shipping lanes and fears of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — through which nearly a fifth of global oil flows. Energy imperative For India, which imports more than 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, the UAE has become not merely an energy supplier but also a critical strategic and security partner in West Asia. Analysts say discussions during the visit are expected to prioritise both reliable energy access and defence coordination as India seeks to shield its economy and trade routes from the fallout of regional instability. Energy cooperation is likely to dominate economic discussions, including long-term LNG contracts, crude supply assurances, upstream investments and alternative logistics arrangements to mitigate potential disruptions in the Gulf. The UAE is already among India’s largest energy partners, supplying crude oil, LPG and LNG, while also hosting major Indian investments in strategic petroleum reserves and upstream projects. Defence convergence At the same time, defence ties between the two countries are entering a new phase. India and the UAE are expected to advance negotiations on a Strategic Defence Partnership framework following a letter of intent signed earlier this year. The proposed agreement is likely to cover defence manufacturing, cybersecurity, maritime security, intelligence-sharing, counter-terrorism cooperation and special operations. The growing convergence reflects shared concerns over regional instability, maritime threats and extremist networks, particularly as geopolitical tensions continue to reshape security calculations across the Gulf. The UAE’s strategic geographic position also gives India an important foothold near critical global energy and shipping routes at a time when competition for influence in West Asia is intensifying among major regional and global powers. Officials and analysts say Modi’s repeated engagement with the UAE leadership signals New Delhi’s determination to consolidate its long-term strategic presence in the Gulf while balancing ties with competing geopolitical actors. Beyond oil The visit also reflects a broader transformation in India-UAE ties over the past decade. What was once primarily an oil-for-remittances relationship has evolved into a comprehensive strategic partnership spanning defence, fintech, renewable energy, food security, artificial intelligence, logistics, infrastructure and digital payments. The UAE is now India’s third-largest trading partner and among its biggest sources of foreign direct investment. Bilateral trade received a major boost after the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in 2022, which sharply accelerated non-oil trade flows and investment integration. Trade between the two countries has expanded rapidly under CEPA, while both sides are increasingly exploring trade settlement mechanisms using local currencies to reduce dependence on the US dollar. Diaspora dimension   Equally important is the Indian diaspora dimension. The UAE hosts more than 4.5 million Indians — the country’s largest expatriate community abroad — whose remittances, business activity and professional contributions form a critical bridge between the two economies. Diaspora welfare, labour protections and mobility issues are expected to feature prominently in the talks, especially as the UAE continues to position itself as a global talent and investment hub. Strategic recalibration The visit also carries symbolic diplomatic weight. Since 2015, Modi and Sheikh Mohamed have built an unusually close political relationship that has fundamentally redefined bilateral engagement. The frequency of leadership exchanges, strategic agreements and joint economic initiatives has elevated the UAE into one of India’s closest partners outside South Asia. For the UAE, strengthening ties with India aligns with Abu Dhabi’s broader strategy of diversifying economic and geopolitical partnerships beyond traditional Western alliances while reinforcing its role as a central hub connecting Asia, Africa and Europe. For India, the relationship offers energy security, investment capital, defence cooperation, strategic connectivity and a reliable Gulf partner during a period of profound geopolitical fragmentation. Against the backdrop of regional conflict and global economic uncertainty, Modi’s latest UAE visit is therefore not merely another diplomatic engagement. It is increasingly being viewed as part of a larger strategic recalibration shaping India’s long-term economic and security architecture in the Middle East.